Venture Global Shares Plunge as BP Wins Multi-Billion Dollar Potential Contract Breach Case

In a significant legal decision that has heightened uncertainty for Venture Global (VG), BP has prevailed in its arbitration case against the U.S. supplier concerning the failure to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) under a long-term contract originally due to commence in late 2022. The International Chamber of Commerce International Court of Arbitration determined that VG breached its obligations by failing to declare commercial operations at the Calcasieu Pass plant in a timely manner and by failing to act as a "reasonable and prudent operator". VG expressed disappointment in the decision, noting its belief that the ruling contradicts the "decisive findings" in a prior, similar arbitration involving Shell.

The dispute centers on claims that VG improperly sold LNG cargoes from its Louisiana facility on the lucrative spot market, rather than supplying them to customers with long-term contracts. The spot market offered record prices, especially following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. VG argued throughout the dispute that it was permitted to conduct these spot sales because the start of official commercial operations was delayed due to mechanical issues and a faulty power island. Although cargoes continued to depart the plant, VG cited these issues as preventing the on-time contract execution. Deliveries to long-term customers only began earlier this year, after VG officially started commercial operations at Calcasieu Pass in April 2025. Following the shift to honoring these longer-term agreements, VG’s average fees collected dropped substantially—around 70% from the first quarter to the second, despite the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (Europe’s gas price determinant) dropping only 24% over that same period.

The BP ruling represents a significant setback for Venture Global, particularly because it comes just eight weeks after the company prevailed in a similar complaint filed by Shell Plc. Energy analysts noted that the unexpected outcome could depend on both the specific wording in the contracts and the arbiter involved. The unfavorable result in the BP case has already rekindled investor concerns regarding pending arbitration proceedings.

The financial implications are severe. BP is seeking to recover damages exceeding $1 billion, plus interest, costs, and attorneys' fees. A separate hearing is scheduled for 2026 to determine the total extent of the damages VG must pay. This amount may even surpass a cap on customer claims contained within the original sales agreement. Following the arbitration loss announcement, VG's shares plunged as much as 19% premarket , reflecting broader market concerns. Research notes suggest that unresolved claims could potentially exceed $5 billion, intensifying the uncertainty around VG’s financial exposure.

BP released a statement expressing satisfaction with the outcome of this phase of the arbitration and looked forward to the determination of the damages. Meanwhile, VG confirmed it is evaluating all available options in response to the tribunal's ruling and intends to continue to vigorously defend its position. BP is not alone in its pursuit; other customers—including Edison, Galp, Poland's Orlen SA, Spain's Repsol SA, and China’s Sinopec—have filed similar claims against Venture Global. However, VG did recently resolve an arbitration dispute with an unnamed customer, resulting in a settlement that had "no material impact".