AST SpaceMobile Gets a Big Boost from Barclays after Bluebird Update

Barclays hiked the AST SpaceMobile stock target to $60 (from $37) because the long-term future looks better, even with minor delays. AST's richer broadband/call/text products mean they can charge more than rivals' basic text-only plans.

AST SpaceMobile Gets a Big Boost from Barclays after Bluebird Update
"A photo from low Earth orbit showing the fully unfolded, nearly 700 sq ft array of AST SpaceMobile’s SM4 Block 1 BlueBird commercial satellite" by AST SpaceMobile
  • AST SpaceMobile is rapidly preparing its next generation of satellites, the BlueBirds.
  • The BlueBird 6 satellite has finished its final assembly and testing and is scheduled to fly to India on October 12th.
  • The BlueBird 7 satellite is scheduled for shipment to Cape Canaveral later in October.
  • The company is actively producing BlueBirds 8 through 16.
  • Launches are planned roughly every 1–2 months throughout 2025 and 2026.
  • The company aims to have between 45 and 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
  • By early 2026, the company intends to complete 40 large phased arrays, expanding the fleet up to BlueBird 46.

Powerful Technology and Partnerships

  • These satellites will be the biggest commercial satellites ever launched into low Earth orbit.
  • Each BlueBird satellite features a giant 2,400-square-foot phased array (a massive antenna system).
  • This technology will deliver direct-to-cell broadband, capable of achieving peak speeds of 120 Mbps per cell.
  • AST SpaceMobile uses a flexible spectrum strategy, combining its own licensed airwaves with those of its partners.
  • The company has teamed up with more than 50 mobile network operators, collectively reaching nearly 3 billion subscribers.
  • A key partnership is with Vodafone, which dates back to 2018.
  • Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile achieved the world's first space-based video call using regular cell phones.
  • Their joint venture, SatCo, is focused on bringing seamless direct-to-cell satellite connectivity to parts of Europe that currently have poor or no mobile coverage.

Financial Outlook and Market Position

  • Barclays recently raised their price target for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) from $37 to $60, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares.
  • The analyst’s medium-term outlook improved, leading to this target increase, even though short-term estimates were reduced due to launch delays.
  • AST's products will be richer, offering text, calls, and broadband, compared to competitors offering text-only services (like Starlink/T-Mobile's $10/month plan).
  • Because AST’s services are more robust, they could see higher price points when they launch.